21/5000 Difficult still machinery industry added value is estimated year on year rise 5.5%_Industry News

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21/5000 Difficult still machinery industry added value is estimated year on year rise 5.5%

Time: 2016-06-27 View: 573 Burst:

Since 2015, the growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry has always been lower than the national industrial average, which is rare for many years. In the first 11 months of last year, the cumulative growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry, led by the rebound in the automobile manufacturing industry, rose 5.3 percent year-on-year, still 0.8 percentage points lower than that of the national industry. CAI weici, special adviser of China machinery industry federation, told a meeting of industry economic operation analysis recently held by the expert committee of China machinery industry association that the growth rate of machinery industry continued to decline in 2015 after a significant decline in 2014, and the grim situation exceeded expectations.
Looking at the industry trend in 2016, CAI predicted that the growth rate is roughly similar to 2015. It is estimated that the added value of the machinery industry increased by 5.5% year on year, and the profit increased by 3.5% year on year. The main business revenue is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2015 and by 4% to 4.5% in 2016. CAI wei ci expresses simultaneously,; Since the base is already very low in 2015, the year-on-year growth rate in 2016 has become less difficult. So the pain may be different for companies at the same rate of growth.
Lack of demand is the biggest problem
Judging from the economic operation data of the machinery industry, output of more than half of the major products in the industry decreased year on year in 2015, and the product price index remained depressed due to insufficient demand. Of the 142 major mechanical product prices, the cumulative price decline of 103 products, accounting for up to 72.25%.
Look from foreign trade situation, machinery industry imports and exports both decline. As the world economy entered a stage of deep adjustment, global demand dropped significantly and the machinery industry also slowed down. The total import and export volume of machinery industry in the first 11 months of last year was $604.651 billion, down 8.08% year on year. Of this, $251.924 billion was imported, down 14.2 percent year-on-year. Exports fell by 3.15 per cent to $352.724 billion, a decline not seen since 2009. With imports falling faster than exports, the trade surplus is expected to be around $110 billion for the full year.
Analyzing the main contradictions and difficulties in the current economic operation of the machinery industry, the relevant person in charge of the China machinery industry said that the lack of market demand is the biggest problem faced by the machinery industry at present, with insufficient supply capacity at the high end, serious excess capacity at the middle and low end, intensified vicious competition, rising cost rigidity, and a grim business environment.
First, insufficient market demand, the cumulative order decline. According to the survey of key contact enterprises of machinery industry, the orders of enterprises in key contact enterprises of machinery industry continued to be sluggish. From January to June last year, the cumulative orders of enterprises in key contact enterprises of machinery industry decreased by 8.41% year-on-year, and from January to November by 4.68% year-on-year, the decline was slightly reduced. However, weak demand is still one of the important challenges faced by the machinery industry.
Second, product prices continue to fall and vicious competition intensifies. First, due to weak demand and insufficient orders, the phenomenon of low price competition between user enterprises and production enterprises is very common, involving both small basic products and large complete sets of equipment. Second, in order to grab orders, some enterprises in the bidding process, malicious low price competition, false promises, dishonest business is more prominent. This phenomenon is not only in the domestic market frequency, and there is a trend of further spread in the foreign market.
Third, costs generally rise, enterprises operating under greater pressure. Machinery industry statistics for the first 11 months of last year showed that costs rose faster than main business revenues and profits. The operating revenue of the machinery industry was 20.59 trillion yuan, up 3.32% year-on-year, and the operating cost was 17.54 trillion yuan, up 3.67% year-on-year.
Fourth, product inventory increase, accounts receivable arrears serious. Due to the lack of market demand, enterprises receivables continue to high. In the first 11 months of last year, the total receivables of the machinery industry reached 3.78 trillion yuan, up 8.19% year-on-year. Although the growth was slower than that of the same period of last year, the absolute amount was still large.
The industry is increasingly fragmented
According to CAI, in terms of the industry operation in 2015, compared with the growth rate of manufacturing and industry, the mechanical industry; It's a drag. Compared with the previous year, the machinery industry witnessed a significant decline in 2015, but there was no cliff-like decline, because the automobile and electrician industries were able to maintain a growth rate of about 5%.
From the operation characteristics of the industry, CAI said that there are structural factors, although all industries are in decline, but agricultural machinery, passenger vehicles and other industries with a significant close to the consumer decline rate is relatively small. In addition, compared with engineering machinery and other industries, the parts industry is relatively stable. The parts industry is relatively good for the main engine. And the industry that serves investment, key project falls fast.
Analyzing the trend of the industry in 2016, CAI said that after three to four consecutive years of decline in industries such as construction machinery and machine tools, the decline has shown signs of narrowing. In addition, after two sharp depreciation of the RMB, the machinery industry exports are positive. Export earnings are expected to turn negative to positive.
As for the trend of import and export, zheng guowei, a member of the expert committee of the China machinery industry federation, said the import and export structure of the machinery industry has improved in recent years and the trade structure is upgrading. He predicted that in 2016, there were two major positive factors for the import and export of the industry. First, the decline of the exchange rate and the depreciation of the RMB were a great positive factor for the industry enterprises. Second, China has signed 14 free trade agreements with 22 countries. He predicted that the import and export of machinery industry will change from negative growth in 2015 to positive growth in 2016.